The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) has released its predictions for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in the new year. This initial extended-range forecast arrives on the heels of a relatively tame season during which only nine storms developed. Of those, three turned into hurricanes.
By contrast, CSU Researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray expect 11 to 16 storms to form this year.
“We foresee a somewhat above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season,” Dr. Gray said. “We anticipate the current El Nino event to dissipate by the 2010 hurricane season, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during [the year].”
That estimate includes six to eight anticipated hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. “Major” hurricanes are those reaching Category-3 status or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour. This report marks the 27th year of forecasting for the CSU team. For the first time in its history, the team opted to publish a projected range (rather than specific figures) in the early season report, along with an assessment of current conditions.
When issuing its predictions, the team emphasized the need to satisfy the general public’s curiosity and call attention to the hurricane phenomena, without offering guarantees as to accuracy.
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict next season’s hurricane activity at such an extended range,” said Klotzbach and Gray. “There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for next year. Our early December statistical forecast methodology shows evidence over 58 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained.”
According to Klotzbach and Gray, there is a 64-percent probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline; a 40-percent probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast (including the Florida peninsula); and a 40-percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast.
The team will release specific numerical projections for the 2010 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30th, on April 7, June 2, and Aug. 4.